Future behaviours decision-making regarding travel avoidance during COVID-19 outbreaks.

Human behavioural changes are poorly understood, and this limitation has been a serious obstacle to epidemic forecasting. It is generally understood that people change their respective behaviours to reduce the risk of infection in response to the status of an epidemic or government interventions. We must first identify the factors that lead to such decision-making to predict these changes. However, due to an absence of a method to observe decision-making for future behaviour, understanding the behavioural responses to disease is limited. Here, we show that accommodation reservation data could reveal the decision-making process that underpins behavioural changes, travel avoidance, for reducing the risk of COVID-19 infections. We found that the motivation to avoid travel with respect to only short-term future behaviours dynamically varied and was associated with the outbreak status and/or the interventions of the government. Our developed method can quantitatively measure and predict a large-scale population's behaviour to determine the future risk of COVID-19 infections. These findings enable us to better understand behavioural changes in response to disease spread, and thus, contribute to the development of reliable long-term forecasting of disease spread.

Delayed Follow-up Visits and Thyrotropin Among Patients With Levothyroxine During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

CONTEXT: The indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on clinical practice have received great attention, but evidence regarding thyroid disease management is lacking. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to investigate the association between delayed follow-up visits during the pandemic and their serum thyrotropin (TSH) levels among patients being treated with levothyroxine. METHODS: This study included 25 361 patients who made a follow-up visit as scheduled (n = 9063) or a delayed follow-up visit (< 30 d, n = 10 909; ≥ 30 d, n = 5389) during the pandemic (after April 2020) in Japan. We employed modified Poisson models to estimate the adjusted risk ratio (aRR) of TSH greater than 4.5 mIU/L and greater than 10 mIU/L during the pandemic according to the 3 types of follow-up visit group (ie, as scheduled, delayed < 30 d, and delayed ≥ 30 d). The models included age, sex, city of residence, TSH levels, underlying thyroid disease, dose of levothyroxine, and duration of levothyroxine prescriptions. RESULTS: The mean age was 52.8 years and women were 88%. Patients who were older and had a higher dose or longer duration of levothyroxine prescriptions were more likely to make a delayed follow-up visit during the pandemic. Changes in TSH were larger among the delayed-visit groups than the scheduled-visit group. We found increased risks of elevated TSH levels during the pandemic among the delayed visit groups, particularly those with delayed visit of 30 or more days (TSH > 4.5 mIU/L, aRR [95% CI] = 1.72 [1.60-1.85]; and TSH > 10 mIU/L, aRR [95% CI] = 2.38 [2.16-2.62]). CONCLUSION: A delayed follow-up visit during the COVID-19 pandemic was associated with less well-controlled TSH among patients with levothyroxine.

Impact of the Coronavirus Disease-2019 Pandemic on Pancreaticobiliary Disease Detection and Treatment.

The emergency declaration (ED) associated with the coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in Japan had a major effect on the management of gastrointestinal endoscopy. We retrospectively compared the number of pancreaticobiliary endoscopies and newly diagnosed pancreaticobiliary cancers before (1 April 2018 to 6 April 2020), during (7 April to 25 May 2020), and after the ED (26 May to 31 July). Multiple comparisons of the three groups were performed with respect to the presence or absence of symptoms and clinical disease stage. There were no significant differences among the three groups (Before/During/After the ED) in the mean number of diagnoses of pancreatic cancer and biliary cancer per month in each period (8.0/7.5/7.5 cases, p = 0.5, and 4.0/3.5/3.0 cases, p = 0.9, respectively). There were no significant differences among the three groups in the number of pancreaticobiliary endoscopies (EUS: endoscopic ultrasonography/ERCP: endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography) per month (67.8/62.5/69.0 cases, p = 0.7 and 89.8/51.5/86.0 cases, p = 0.06, respectively), whereas the number of EUS cases decreased by 42.7% between before and during the ED. There were no significant differences among the three groups in the presence or absence of symptoms at diagnosis or clinical disease stage. There was no significant reduction in the newly diagnosed pancreaticobiliary cancer, even during the ED. The number of ERCP cases was not significantly reduced as a result of urgent procedures, but the number of EUS cases was significantly reduced.

The Potential Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Clinical Management of Thyroid Disorders in Japan

Background: The indirect influence of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on clinical practice has received great attention. However, the evidence about how the pandemic has affected clinical management of hypothyroidism and hyperthyroidism, two common diseases worldwide, is lacking. We therefore aimed to examine the trends in the number of outpatients with thyroid disorders and their thyrotropin (TSH) levels before and during the pandemic in Japan. Methods: This cohort study included all patients aged ≥20 years who visited Ito Hospital, one of the largest hospitals that specialize in thyroid disorders in Japan, during 2019/1-2020/6. Our outcomes of interest were 1) trends in the aggregated number of visits at the clinic and 2) trends in average TSH levels from January 2019 to June 2020. The trends in TSH according to the clinic visit in early 2020 were assessed utilizing difference-in-difference models controlling for age, sex, and city of residence, stratified by each medication use (i.e., levothyroxine [LT4], antithyroid drug [ATD], potassium iodine [KI], or no medication). Results: During 2019/1-2020/6, we observed 517,412 visits at Ito Hospital for thyroid disorders, and the average number of visits per month was significantly decreased for both the first visits (1,995 in 2019 vs. 1,268 in 2020;reduction rate, 36%;p&lt;0.001) and the follow-up visits (29,509 in 2019 vs. 21,959 in 2020;reduction rate, 26%;p&lt;0.001). Among 15,455 patients who had been followed in 2019, we found a higher TSH at the follow-up visits during 2020/4-2020/6 among patients with LT4 who did not visit the clinic during 2020/1-2020/3 than those who did (difference-in-difference [95%CI]=+1.77 [1.25-2.29], p&lt;0.001). We also found decreased trends in TSH among patients with ATD or KI who visited the clinic during 2020/1-2020/3 (p&lt;0.001 for both categories), but not among patients with no medications (p=0.29). Conclusions: In this large cohort in Japan, we found the decreased number of outpatients with thyroid disorders since 2020/1 with a nadir in 2020/4. Using individual-level data, we also found the association between visiting the clinic in early 2020 and TSH control at the following visit among patients with medications. These findings highlight the importance of careful monitoring of patients with medications for thyroid disorders during the COVID-19 pandemic.